CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RACE
Monte Carlo · 50,000 sims · Dixon-Coles ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG · Logit pooling (Odds+ML+DC) · MoV Elo
· Computed 22 Oct 2026 02:15 BST (0.9s)
7
Played
31
Remaining
14
Fixtures Left
4
Contenders
TOP 4 AT A GLANCE
Manchester City FC
100%
Currently 1st · 21 pts
Avg finish: 3 · xPts 22.6
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 3 · xPts 22.6
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
West Ham United FC
100%
Currently 18th · 39 pts
Avg finish: 1 · xPts 39
Title: 100% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 1 · xPts 39
Title: 100% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Burnley FC
100%
Currently 19th · 22 pts
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 22
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 22
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
100%
Currently 20th · 20 pts
Avg finish: 4 · xPts 20
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 4 · xPts 20
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Arsenal FC
0%
Currently 2nd · 18 pts
Avg finish: 5 · xPts 20.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 5 · xPts 20.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
0%
Currently 3rd · 16 pts
Avg finish: 6 · xPts 16
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 6 · xPts 16
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Chelsea FC
0%
Currently 4th · 13 pts
Avg finish: 7.3 · xPts 14.8
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 7.3 · xPts 14.8
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Liverpool FC
0%
Currently 5th · 12 pts
Avg finish: 8.3 · xPts 14.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 8.3 · xPts 14.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
FULL QUALIFICATION PROBABILITIES
SEASON SIMULATION
50,000 SIMS · xG+DC · LOGIT POOLING · MoV ELO| PROJ | Team | Pts | GD | UCL (Top 4) | Title | Europa | Relegation | xPts | Avg Pos | Now | Position Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United FC | 39 | -19 | 100% | — | — | 39 | 1 | 18 ▲17 |
|
|
| 2 | Burnley FC | 22 | -37 | — | — | — | 22 | 2 | 19 ▲17 |
|
|
| 3 | Manchester City FC | 21 | +12 | — | — | — | 22.6 | 3 | 1 ▼2 |
|
|
| 4 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 20 | -41 | — | — | — | 20 | 4 | 20 ▲16 |
|
|
| 5 | Arsenal FC | 18 | +6 | — | 100% | — | 20.7 | 5 | 2 ▼3 |
|
|
| 6 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 16 | +18 | — | — | — | 16 | 6 | 3 ▼3 |
|
|
| 7 | Chelsea FC | 13 | +4 | — | — | — | 14.8 | 7.3 | 4 ▼3 |
|
|
| 8 | Liverpool FC | 12 | +1 | — | — | — | 14.7 | 8.3 | 5 ▼3 |
|
|
| 9 | Leeds United FC | 10 | +3 | — | — | — | 11 | 9.2 | 7 ▼2 |
|
|
| 10 | Brentford FC | 10 | +5 | — | — | — | 10 | 9.5 | 6 ▼4 |
|
|
| 11 | Everton FC | 10 | +1 | — | — | — | 10 | 10.8 | 8 ▼3 |
|
|
| 12 | Hull City AFC | 9 | +1 | — | — | — | 9 | 12 | 9 ▼3 |
|
|
| 13 | Ipswich Town FC | 9 | -4 | — | — | — | 9 | 13 | 10 ▼3 |
|
|
| 14 | Newcastle United FC | 8 | -4 | — | — | — | 8 | 14 | 11 ▼3 |
|
|
| 15 | Aston Villa FC | 8 | -4 | — | — | — | 8 | 15 | 12 ▼3 |
|
|
| 16 | Manchester United FC | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 7 | 16 | 13 ▼3 |
|
|
| 17 | Crystal Palace FC | 7 | -8 | — | — | — | 7 | 17 | 14 ▼3 |
|
|
| 18 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | -4 | — | — | 6 | 18 | 15 ▼3 |
|
||
| 19 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 6 | -4 | — | — | 6 | 19 | 16 ▼3 |
|
||
| 20 | Coventry City FC | 6 | -8 | — | — | 6 | 20 | 17 ▼3 |
|
||
| 21 | Fulham FC | 5 | -3 | — | — | 5 | 21 | 18 ▼3 |
|
||
| 22 | Nottingham Forest FC | 5 | -4 | — | — | 5 | 22 | 19 ▼3 |
|
||
| 23 | Sunderland AFC | 4 | -8 | — | — | 4 | 23 | 20 ▼3 |
|
Dashed green = UCL cutoff · xPts = 3×P(Win)+P(Draw) exact expected · DC ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG + Logit pooling · MoV Elo
RELEGATION DANGER ZONE
AFC Bournemouth
100%
Currently 15th · 6 pts
Projected: 6 pts · Avg finish: 18
Projected: 6 pts · Avg finish: 18
Tottenham Hotspur FC
100%
Currently 16th · 6 pts
Projected: 6 pts · Avg finish: 19
Projected: 6 pts · Avg finish: 19
Coventry City FC
100%
Currently 17th · 6 pts
Projected: 6 pts · Avg finish: 20
Projected: 6 pts · Avg finish: 20
Fulham FC
100%
Currently 18th · 5 pts
Projected: 5 pts · Avg finish: 21
Projected: 5 pts · Avg finish: 21
Nottingham Forest FC
100%
Currently 19th · 5 pts
Projected: 5 pts · Avg finish: 22
Projected: 5 pts · Avg finish: 22
Sunderland AFC
100%
Currently 20th · 4 pts
Projected: 4 pts · Avg finish: 23
Projected: 4 pts · Avg finish: 23