CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RACE
Monte Carlo · 50,000 sims · Dixon-Coles ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG · Logit pooling (Odds+ML+DC) · MoV Elo
· Computed 03 Jun 2026 14:45 BST (0.8s)
38
Played
0
Remaining
14
Fixtures Left
4
Contenders
TOP 4 AT A GLANCE
Arsenal FC
100%
Currently 1st · 85 pts
Avg finish: 1 · xPts 87.7
Title: 100% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 1 · xPts 87.7
Title: 100% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Manchester City FC
100%
Currently 2nd · 78 pts
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 79.6
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 79.6
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Manchester United FC
100%
Currently 3rd · 71 pts
Avg finish: 3 · xPts 71
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 3 · xPts 71
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Aston Villa FC
100%
Currently 4th · 65 pts
Avg finish: 4 · xPts 65
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 4 · xPts 65
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Liverpool FC
0%
Currently 5th · 60 pts
Avg finish: 5 · xPts 62.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 5 · xPts 62.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
AFC Bournemouth
0%
Currently 6th · 57 pts
Avg finish: 6 · xPts 57
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 6 · xPts 57
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Sunderland AFC
0%
Currently 7th · 54 pts
Avg finish: 7.5 · xPts 54
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 7.5 · xPts 54
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
0%
Currently 8th · 53 pts
Avg finish: 8.7 · xPts 53
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 8.7 · xPts 53
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
FULL QUALIFICATION PROBABILITIES
SEASON SIMULATION
50,000 SIMS · xG+DC · LOGIT POOLING · MoV ELO| PROJ | Team | Pts | GD | UCL (Top 4) | Title | Europa | Relegation | xPts | Avg Pos | Now | Position Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal FC | 85 | +44 | 100% | — | — | 87.7 | 1 | 1 — |
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| 2 | Manchester City FC | 78 | +42 | — | — | — | 79.6 | 2 | 2 — |
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| 3 | Manchester United FC | 71 | +19 | — | — | — | 71 | 3 | 3 — |
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| 4 | Aston Villa FC | 65 | +7 | — | — | — | 65 | 4 | 4 — |
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| 5 | Liverpool FC | 60 | +10 | — | 100% | — | 62.7 | 5 | 5 — |
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| 6 | AFC Bournemouth | 57 | +4 | — | — | — | 57 | 6 | 6 — |
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| 7 | Sunderland AFC | 54 | -6 | — | — | — | 54 | 7.5 | 7 — |
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| 8 | Chelsea FC | 52 | +6 | — | — | — | 53.8 | 8 | 10 ▲2 |
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| 9 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 53 | +6 | — | — | — | 53 | 8.7 | 8 ▼1 |
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| 10 | Brentford FC | 53 | +3 | — | — | — | 53 | 9.7 | 9 ▼1 |
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| 11 | Fulham FC | 52 | -4 | — | — | — | 52 | 11 | 11 — |
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| 12 | Newcastle United FC | 49 | -2 | — | — | — | 49 | 12.3 | 12 — |
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| 13 | Everton FC | 49 | -3 | — | — | — | 49 | 13.3 | 13 — |
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| 14 | Leeds United FC | 47 | -7 | — | — | — | 48 | 13.5 | 14 — |
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| 15 | Crystal Palace FC | 45 | -10 | — | — | — | 45 | 15 | 15 — |
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| 16 | Nottingham Forest FC | 44 | -3 | — | — | — | 44 | 16 | 16 — |
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| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 41 | -9 | — | — | — | 41 | 17 | 17 — |
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| 18 | West Ham United FC | 39 | -19 | — | — | 39 | 18 | 18 — |
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| 19 | Burnley FC | 22 | -37 | — | — | 22 | 19 | 19 — |
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| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 20 | -41 | — | — | 20 | 20 | 20 — |
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Dashed green = UCL cutoff · xPts = 3×P(Win)+P(Draw) exact expected · DC ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG + Logit pooling · MoV Elo
RELEGATION DANGER ZONE
West Ham United FC
100%
Currently 18th · 39 pts
Projected: 39 pts · Avg finish: 18
Projected: 39 pts · Avg finish: 18
Burnley FC
100%
Currently 19th · 22 pts
Projected: 22 pts · Avg finish: 19
Projected: 22 pts · Avg finish: 19
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
100%
Currently 20th · 20 pts
Projected: 20 pts · Avg finish: 20
Projected: 20 pts · Avg finish: 20