CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RACE
Monte Carlo · 50,000 sims · Dixon-Coles ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG · Logit pooling (Odds+ML+DC) · MoV Elo
· Computed 06 Sep 2026 19:00 BST (1.6s)
38
Played
0
Remaining
14
Fixtures Left
5
Contenders
TOP 4 AT A GLANCE
West Ham United FC
100%
Currently 18th · 39 pts
Avg finish: 1 · xPts 39
Title: 100% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 1 · xPts 39
Title: 100% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Burnley FC
100%
Currently 19th · 22 pts
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 22
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 2 · xPts 22
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
100%
Currently 20th · 20 pts
Avg finish: 3 · xPts 20
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Avg finish: 3 · xPts 20
Title: 0% · VIRTUALLY QUALIFIED
Manchester City FC
93.1%
Currently 1st · 9 pts
Avg finish: 4.1 · xPts 10.6
Title: 0% · STRONG POSITION
Avg finish: 4.1 · xPts 10.6
Title: 0% · STRONG POSITION
Chelsea FC
6.9%
Currently 4th · 6 pts
Avg finish: 6.6 · xPts 7.8
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 6.6 · xPts 7.8
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Arsenal FC
0%
Currently 2nd · 9 pts
Avg finish: 5.1 · xPts 11.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 5.1 · xPts 11.7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Hull City AFC
0%
Currently 3rd · 7 pts
Avg finish: 6.8 · xPts 7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 6.8 · xPts 7
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Brentford FC
0%
Currently 5th · 5 pts
Avg finish: 8.5 · xPts 5
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
Avg finish: 8.5 · xPts 5
Title: 0% · LONG SHOT
FULL QUALIFICATION PROBABILITIES
SEASON SIMULATION
50,000 SIMS · xG+DC · LOGIT POOLING · MoV ELO| PROJ | Team | Pts | GD | UCL (Top 4) | Title | Europa | Relegation | xPts | Avg Pos | Now | Position Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United FC | 39 | -19 | 100% | — | — | 39 | 1 | 18 ▲17 |
|
|
| 2 | Burnley FC | 22 | -37 | — | — | — | 22 | 2 | 19 ▲17 |
|
|
| 3 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 20 | -41 | — | — | — | 20 | 3 | 20 ▲17 |
|
|
| 4 | Manchester City FC | 9 | +5 | — | 6.9% | — | 10.6 | 4.1 | 1 ▼3 |
|
|
| 5 | Arsenal FC | 9 | +5 | — | 93.1% | — | 11.7 | 5.1 | 2 ▼3 |
|
|
| 6 | Chelsea FC | 6 | +1 | — | — | — | 7.8 | 6.6 | 4 ▼2 |
|
|
| 7 | Hull City AFC | 7 | +3 | — | — | — | 7 | 6.8 | 3 ▼4 |
|
|
| 8 | Brentford FC | 5 | +3 | — | — | — | 5 | 8.5 | 5 ▼3 |
|
|
| 9 | Liverpool FC | 5 | +2 | — | — | — | 7.7 | 9.5 | 6 ▼3 |
|
|
| 10 | Leeds United FC | 5 | +1 | — | — | — | 6 | 9.6 | 9 ▼1 |
|
|
| 11 | Newcastle United FC | 5 | +2 | — | — | — | 5 | 10.5 | 6 ▼5 |
|
|
| 12 | Everton FC | 5 | +2 | — | — | — | 5 | 11.5 | 8 ▼4 |
|
|
| 13 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 4 | +3 | — | — | — | 4 | 13 | 10 ▼3 |
|
|
| 14 | Manchester United FC | 4 | +1 | — | — | — | 4 | 14 | 11 ▼3 |
|
|
| 15 | Sunderland AFC | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 4 | 15 | 12 ▼3 |
|
|
| 16 | Ipswich Town FC | 3 | -4 | — | — | — | 3 | 16 | 13 ▼3 |
|
|
| 17 | Crystal Palace FC | 3 | -4 | — | — | — | 3 | 17 | 13 ▼4 |
|
|
| 18 | AFC Bournemouth | 2 | -1 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 15 ▼3 |
|
||
| 19 | Nottingham Forest FC | 2 | -1 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 16 ▼3 |
|
||
| 20 | Aston Villa FC | 1 | -5 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17 ▼3 |
|
||
| 21 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 1 | -5 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 17 ▼4 |
|
||
| 22 | Fulham FC | 0 | -3 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 19 ▼3 |
|
||
| 23 | Coventry City FC | 0 | -5 | — | — | 0 | 23 | 20 ▼3 |
|
Dashed green = UCL cutoff · xPts = 3×P(Win)+P(Draw) exact expected · DC ρ=-0.12 · Log-linear xG + Logit pooling · MoV Elo
RELEGATION DANGER ZONE
AFC Bournemouth
100%
Currently 15th · 2 pts
Projected: 2 pts · Avg finish: 18
Projected: 2 pts · Avg finish: 18
Nottingham Forest FC
100%
Currently 16th · 2 pts
Projected: 2 pts · Avg finish: 19
Projected: 2 pts · Avg finish: 19
Aston Villa FC
100%
Currently 17th · 1 pts
Projected: 1 pts · Avg finish: 20
Projected: 1 pts · Avg finish: 20
Tottenham Hotspur FC
100%
Currently 17th · 1 pts
Projected: 1 pts · Avg finish: 21
Projected: 1 pts · Avg finish: 21
Fulham FC
100%
Currently 19th · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 22
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 22
Coventry City FC
100%
Currently 20th · 0 pts
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 23
Projected: 0 pts · Avg finish: 23